For the most part the predicted market peaks and troughs are pretty accurate. This is more of a statistical analysis (using past numbers to predict future behavior) than a Nostradamus getting high and pulling predictions out of his ass.
But still, there’s a degree of confirmation bias influencing the believers (and conversely instinctive skepticism affecting doubters) that come into okay.
Either way, I think it’s an interesting tidbit from the past.
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The pig cycle? That’s what I learned it was called.
I think most of the models work well as long everyone believes in them and nobody tries to exploit them.
