AI’s business model is starting to look less like a revolution and more like a $6 trillion IOU. Bain says existing AI services may cover just $1.8 trillion by 2031, leaving a $4.2 trillion hole to justify the data center frenzy. Apparently the killer app is still: »please invent enough revenue before the depreciation schedule catches us!!!«
In order to make $6 trillion by 2031, every human being on earth would have to spend at least $150 per year on average.
Maybe that doesn’t sound like a lot if you’re already paying a $100 a month for a Claude max subscription or whatever, but consider that the vast majority of people don’t pay for any AI at all, and have no interest in ever paying for it.
Also, $150 is a best-case scenario where revenue is 100% profit. In actual reality, the profit margins are much, much lower, and may not even exist at all!
Innovation?
That’s just code for “Find a way to fuck consumers out of their money without actually giving them anything.”
Time to call the great innovator, Donald trump.
“What the industry needs is a wave of innovation”
Narrator: They didn’t innovate
you know where innovation comes from?
independent research.
you know what the oligopolies hate?
independent research.
pick one. you can’t have it both ways.
It’s fine. All of this is borrowed money and commitments. The reason prices on RAM and GPUs are through the roof is because all of the future capacity has been spoken for. But when the datacenters all that silicon is supposed go into don’t arrive, all of that booked demand evaporates. I think we’ll see a very nice market correction. Big tech will be fine, but stock prices will tank. The US AI labs will continue to exist, but the chinese labs will gut their competitive advantage. US put all their eggs into this stupid AI basket and China will be happy to give away the tech to spit in the US’s soup.
I believe this is report all those articles are referring to https://www.bain.com/insights/new-innovation-is-required-to-fund-ais-6-trillion-buildout-technology-report-2026/A message to the industry:
Fuck yourselves, you traitorous, awful, slimy, scummy, pee brained, flee bitten, rabid, child raping, terrorist, ego driven, scumbag, sacks of monkey shit. Holy shit; hallelujah
I take a market crash of apocalyptic proportions over a cloud dystopia any day.
You’re in luck because you’re going to have both!
